The site automatically finds halvings, peaks and bottoms in the price series, draws phase zones, calculates gains, drawdowns and durations. New cycles appear in the table automatically. Plus an estimate of when the current phase will change.
Peak → bottom duration for projection (historical average ≈ 383 days)383 days
Expected bottom
Fading gains: each cycle is weaker
Y axis — gain from halving price (shared × scale)
2012→2016 2016→2020 2020→2024 2024→now · current
Cycle statistics
cycles found: 4
Cycle
Halving
Peak
Gain
Bull
Bottom
Drawdown
Bear
Accum.
Cycle 1 closed
2012→2016
$13
$1.1k
+8569%
351d
$172
−85%
426d 542d
Cycle 2 closed
2016→2020
$643
$19.7k
+2957%
523d
$3.2k
−84%
365d 514d
Cycle 3 closed
2020→2024
$8.6k
$69k
+706%
552d
$15.5k
−78%
365d 522d
Cycle 4 current
2024→now
$65.6k
$126k
+92%
543d
≈ Nov '26 -38%*
ongoing 221d
—
What history shows
The peak arrives in ~12–18 months after a halving, then the decline leads to the bottom in ~360–410 days (avg ~383). The depth of the crash and total returns fade with every cycle. Each cycle's bottom landed above the previous peak.
Where we are now
Cycle peak — ~$126k (Oct 2025). The decline phase is underway. Based on the average peak → bottom duration, phase change is expected ≈ Q4 2026, the next halving — ~2028. This is a time reference, not a price prediction.
Not financial advice. Zones and projection are an illustration of the recurring 4-year rhythm, not a prediction. Each cycle plays out under different conditions (ETF, rates, regulation). Analyst opinions are split. Make your own decisions.